Short-Term Nickel Prices Will Still Fluctuate Downward, Nickel Sulphate Average Price Remains WoW Unchanged [SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Summary]

1.7Nickel Morning Briefing

Refined Nickel:

Spot Premiums/Discounts: Today, mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan No. 1 nickel were quoted in the range of 3,500-3,600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 3,550 yuan/mt, up by 350 yuan. Russian nickel premiums/discounts were quoted in the range of -100 to 100 yuan/mt, with an average of 0 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Futures: In the morning, nickel prices fell by 0.21%, down 260 yuan to 122,660 yuan.

Overall, average premiums rose slightly. Demand side, entering January, as some downstream enterprises completed restocking in mid-to-late December, the recent market has been relatively sluggish. Supply side, top-tier enterprises have no plans for production cuts in January, and overall supply remains sufficient. With a relatively loose supply-demand balance, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term.

Nickel Sulphate Price Spread: Today, nickel briquette prices were 122,400-122,800 yuan/mt, up by 475 yuan/mt from the previous trading day's spot prices. Nickel sulphate remains at a discount to refined nickel.

Nickel Sulphate:

OnJanuary 6, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,382 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,000-26,920 yuan/mt, and the average price remained unchanged WoW.

Cost side, coefficients for high-grade nickel matte and MHP transactions have remained stable recently. LME nickel prices fluctuated slightly today to $15,090/mt (Ni contained), with spot cost support slightly narrowing but not yet reflected in nickel sulphate transactions or inquiries. Demand side, precursor plants have mostly completed January nickel salt restocking, and market inquiry activity remains weak. Supply side, nickel salt plants continue to stand firm on quotes, with transaction coefficients remaining stable recently. Overall, under the backdrop of weak demand from both buyers and sellers, nickel sulphate prices are expected to remain stable.

Nickel Pig Iron:

OnJanuary 6, the SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 935 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), unchanged from the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, high-grade NPI prices fluctuated downward, and with traditional smelters facing expanded losses, production is expected to weaken. In Indonesia, current NPI smelters have relatively sufficient raw material inventories, and some smelters maintain partial profitability. Weak demand for high-grade nickel matte persists, and the phenomenon of converting high-grade nickel matte to high-grade NPI production remains, with Indonesian production maintaining expected growth. Demand side, stainless steel mills have entered a seasonal maintenance period, with production weakening. Demand for NPI from steel mills has declined MoM, and top-tier enterprises have signed a large number of long-term contracts for raw materials, leading to weaker spot order demand. However, current cost support for NPI remains firm, and high-grade NPI prices are expected to remain stable with a weak trend.

Stainless Steel:

OnJanuary 6, stainless steel spot prices temporarily halted their downward trend, maintaining low-level stability. Supply side, steel mills continued to deliver goods, while downstream demand remained weak, creating an imbalance between supply and demand. Market bearish sentiment persists, and selling pressure is high. In the morning, 304 cold-rolled prices in Wuxi were quoted at 12,850-13,000 yuan/mt, 304 HRC at 12,300-12,500 yuan/mt, 316L cold-rolled at 23,600-23,800 yuan/mt, 201J1 cold-rolled at 7,400-7,700 yuan/mt, and 430 cold-rolled at 7,150-7,450 yuan/mt. At 10:30 a.m., the SHFE SS2502 contract price was 12,760 yuan/mt, with Wuxi stainless steel spot premiums at 260-410 yuan/mt (spot trimmed edge = mill edge + 170 yuan/mt).